There is no other course in NASCAR very like Dover International Speedway. The 1-mile concrete monitor in Delaware includes high banks and multiple grooves, similar to Bristol’s half-mile design but with high-banked straightaways.
For handicapping purposes, Dover is a unique monitor, but outcomes from Bristol should be taken under consideration, as well as tracks that have utilized the 750-horsepower, no-aero duct bundle this season (more on that below).
It does not appear to matter where NASCAR races this season, Kyle Busch has been one of the top-3 favorites, also he is the No. 1 power-rated catalyst for oddsmakers. Busch is not just leading the Cup Series in victories (three) this season, but his 10 straight top-10 finishes to start the year has just been achieved by four other drivers, and not because Morgan Shepherd in 1990.
Busch is a whopping 3/1 to win Sunday’s Gander RV 400 (1 p.m. CT, FS1) and hard to fade considering he’s 17 top-10s, including 12 top-5s, in his last 28 series begins at Dover.
Update: The Gander RV 400 was postponed until Monday at 11 a.m. CT on FS1
Chase Elliott, last week’s winner in Talladega, and slumping contender Kyle Larson were the only two drivers to get their futures odds to win the Cup Series championship adjusted this week. Both drivers are worth fading in the matchups (listed below), nevertheless.
Elliott is the harder market believing he is the most recent winner in the Monster Mile and has five top-5 finishes in six series races at Dover, but Chevrolet has been really disappointing this season outside of the superspeedways and we all like to fade drivers off wins.
Larson, who hasn’t won a race in the Cup level since the 2017 fall race at Richmond, proceeded from 20/1 into 25/1 to win November’s title. Larson opened the season 7/1, but enters this weekend’s race at Dover sitting outside of the playoff standings in 21st. Talladega’s crash marked the third time in six races Larson has shattered out of a race. Other outcomes during that span include a 12th-place showing at Fontana, 18th-place in Martinsville and 19th at Bristol.
Dover rules package, recent results
For the fifth time this season, Cup drivers will race with an engine-producing 750-horsepower and no aero ducts. The four previous races have been Phoenix, Martinsville, Bristol, and Richmond, together with Joe Gibbs Racing winning three and Brad Keselowski top 446 of 500 laps at Martinsville.
Recent Dover winners
2019 autumn: Chase Elliott
2018 spring: Kevin Harvick
2017 autumn: Kyle Busch
2017 spring: Jimmie Johnson
2016 fall: Martin Truex, Jr..
Odds to win Gander RV 400 in Dover
Opening possibilities provided by Westgate SuperBook
Kyle BUSCH 3/1
Kevin HARVICK 4/1
Martin TRUEX JR 8/1
Joey LOGANO 8/1
Clint BOWYER 12/1
Kurt BUSCH 14/1
Chase ELLIOTT 12/1
Denny HAMLIN 14/1
Aric ALMIROLA 18/1
Ryan BLANEY 20/1
Kyle LARSON 20/1
Erik JONES 25/1
Jimmie JOHNSON 20/1
Daniel SUAREZ 50/1
Austin DILLON 80/1
Ricky STENHOUSE JR 100/1
Ryan NEWMAN 100/1
Alex BOWMAN 100/1
Paul MENARD 100/1
William BYRON 200/1
Chris BUESCHER 300/1
Darrell WALLACE JR 300/1
Daniel HEMRIC 300/1
Ryan PREECE 500/1
Ty DILLON 1000/1
Michael McDOWELL 2000/1
David RAGAN 2000/1
FIELD (others) 1000/1
Notable NASCAR betting matchups in Dover
Opening possibilities provided by Westgate SuperBook
Kyle BUSCH -125
Kevin HARVICK +105
Denny HAMLIN -110
Kurt BUSCH -110
Kevin HARVICK -140
Kurt BUSCH -110
Chase ELLIOTT -110
Joey LOGANO -110
Martin TRUEX JR -110
Joey LOGANO -110
Martin TRUEX JR -110
Clint BOWYER -110
Kurt BUSCH -110
NASCAR in Dover bets Opening odds Supplied by Westgate SuperBook
Hamlin (-110) over Elliott
We mentioned fading Elliott over and our decide to beat him is Hamlin, who’s enjoying a resurgent season. Hamlin has finished fifth all four races with Sunday’s bundle and contains five top-10 endings in the previous six Dover races, including a runner-up last fall.
Truex Jr. (-110) over Keselowski
Truex includes five top-10s and four top-5s at the last six Dover races, leading 387 laps at that time. Truex also finished second at Phoenix on this bundle and won at Richmond after leading a race-high 186 laps. Even though Keselowski dominated Martinsville, he’s been 19th at Phoenix, 18th in Bristol, and seventh at Richmond.
Daniel Suarez (-110) over Jimmie Johnson
How the mighty have fallen. Seven-time winner Johnson returns to the site of the most recent success, where he is the sport’s all-time winningest driver with 11 victories. But Johnson is 16th in the series standings and has struggled the past two seasons. Suarez calls Dover his favourite track, and he’s averaging a 6.7 finish over four starts. The Mexico native owns the fourth-best average running position among active drivers at Dover and contains the third-most laps at the top 15.

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