There’s no other track in NASCAR like Dover International Speedway. The 1-mile concrete monitor in Delaware includes high banks and several grooves, like Bristol’s half-mile layout but with high-banked straightaways.
For handicapping purposes, Dover is a unique monitor, but results from Bristol ought to be taken under account, as well as tracks that have utilized the 750-horsepower, no-aero duct bundle this year (more on that below).
It does not appear to matter where NASCAR races this past season, Kyle Busch has been one of those top-3 favorites, and he is the No. 1 power-rated catalyst for oddsmakers. Busch isn’t only directing the Cup Series in victories (three) this season, but his 10 directly top-10 finishes to start the year has just been accomplished by four other motorists, rather than since Morgan Shepherd in 1990.
Busch is a whopping 3/1 to win Sunday’s Gander RV 400 (1 p.m. CT, FS1) and hard to fade believing he has 17 top-10s, such as 12 top-5s, in his last 28 series begins at Dover.
Update: The Gander RV 400 was postponed until Monday at 11 a.m. CT on FS1
Chase Elliott, last week’s winner at Talladega, and slumping contender Kyle Larson would be the only two drivers to have their futures chances to win the Cup Series championship corrected this week. Both motorists are worth fading in the matchups (listed below), nevertheless.
Elliott is the tougher sell considering he is the latest winner in the Monster Mile and has five top-5 finishes in six series races in Dover, but Chevrolet has been really disappointing this season out the superspeedways and we like to fade drivers off wins.
Larson, who hasn’t won a race in the Cup level since the 2017 fall race at Richmond, moved from 20/1 to 25/1 to win November’s title. Larson opened the season 7/1, but enters this weekend’s race in Dover sitting beyond the playoff standings at 21st. Talladega’s crash marked the third time in six races Larson has shattered from a race. Other results during that span comprise a 12th-place revealing at Fontana, 18th-place in Martinsville and 19th at Bristol.
Dover rules package, recent results
For the fifth time this season, Cup drivers will race using an engine-producing 750-horsepower without a aero ducts. The four previous races were Phoenix, Martinsville, Bristol, and Richmond, together with Joe Gibbs Racing winning three and Brad Keselowski leading 446 of all 500 laps at Martinsville.
Recent Dover winners
2019 autumn: Chase Elliott
2018 spring: Kevin Harvick
2017 autumn: Kyle Busch
2017 spring: Jimmie Johnson
2016 autumn: Martin Truex, Jr..
Curious to win Gander RV 400 in Dover
Opening possibilities provided by Westgate SuperBook
Kyle BUSCH 3/1
Kevin HARVICK 4/1
Martin TRUEX JR 8/1
Joey LOGANO 8/1
Clint BOWYER 12/1
Kurt BUSCH 14/1
Chase ELLIOTT 12/1
Denny HAMLIN 14/1
Aric ALMIROLA 18/1
Ryan BLANEY 20/1
Kyle LARSON 20/1
Erik JONES 25/1
Jimmie JOHNSON 20/1
Daniel SUAREZ 50/1
Austin DILLON 80/1
Ricky STENHOUSE JR 100/1
Ryan NEWMAN 100/1
Alex BOWMAN 100/1
Paul MENARD 100/1
William BYRON 200/1
Chris BUESCHER 300/1
Darrell WALLACE JR 300/1
Daniel HEMRIC 300/1
Ryan PREECE 500/1
Ty DILLON 1000/1
Michael McDOWELL 2000/1
David RAGAN 2000/1
FIELD (others) 1000/1
Notable NASCAR betting matchups at Dover
Opening odds provided by Westgate SuperBook
Kyle BUSCH -125
Kevin HARVICK +105
Denny HAMLIN -110
Kurt BUSCH -110
Kevin HARVICK -140
Kurt BUSCH -110
Chase ELLIOTT -110
Joey LOGANO -110
Martin TRUEX JR -110
Joey LOGANO -110
Martin TRUEX JR -110
Clint BOWYER -110
Kurt BUSCH -110
NASCAR in Dover stakes to consider Opening odds provided by Westgate SuperBook
Hamlin (-110) over Elliott
We said fading Elliott above and our decide to beat him is Hamlin, who is enjoying a resurgent season. Hamlin has finished fifth in all four races with Sunday’s package and contains five top-10 endings in the last six Dover races, including a runner-up last fall.
Truex Jr. (-110) over Keselowski
Truex includes five top-10s and four top-5s in the previous six Dover races, leading 387 laps at that time. Truex also finished second at Phoenix on this package and won at Richmond after leading a race-high 186 laps. While Keselowski dominated Martinsville, he has been 19th at Phoenix, 18th in Bristol, and seventh at Richmond.
Daniel Suarez (-110) over Jimmie Johnson
How the mighty have fallen. Seven-time champion Johnson returns to the site of his latest victory, where he’s the game’s all-time winningest driver with 11 victories. But Johnson is 16th in the series standings and has fought the past two seasons. Suarez calls Dover his favourite track, and he is averaging a 6.7 complete over four begins. The Mexico native possesses the fourth-best typical running posture among active drivers in Dover and has the third-most laps in the top 15.

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